I think this game against New Orleans was ok to lose...
Man that hurts to say, but if you look at a few other factors, games on the road against one of your four NFC opponents are ok to lose. Sure you want to win on the road against a Super Bowl contender to show yourselves and the world that you can do it, but in the grand scheme of things (always wondered why it was the grand scheme of things...what things??), if you can't go 16-0, I'd rather lose last week and beat Pittsburgh at home, then the other way around. I know that's a crappy way to think, but trying to make some lemonade here.
Let's backtrack here a second. Before the season started, I put on my prognosticating hat and went week by week through the Texan's schedule, tried to think about each game objectively (if my heart made the picks, they'd never lose), and made game by game predictions for the season. When I came to weeks 3 and 4, I predicted 1-1. I never really made a firm commitment to which one they would win or lose, but I went back and forth many times. As I mentioned before, if you have to go 1-1, you'd much rather it be by winning against Pitt at home. It should be a team's goal to never lose at home. Yes winning on the road is important, but if you go 8-0 at home, going 0.500 on the road makes you a 12 win team. It's sort of like sweeping your division; you also want to do well outside the division, but go 6-0 and 0.500 elsewhere and you're 11-5. Outside of the 2008 Patriots, 11-5 gets you in the playoffs every time. That being said, I thought they could go into the Superdome and win that game. The Saints have a defense that you can move the ball on. We saw Green Bay do it. We saw the Texans do it. Hell, we even saw the Bears do it for a little bit before Mike Martz forgot how to say the word "run". And of course, you can't talk about the Saints without talking about Drew Brees-us and their offense. I had a feeling that this game would be a shootout (shameless plug: click here!) and unfortunately, the Texans were not able to come out on top. And just as the players should, I too am not going to dwell too much on last week's loss. But first, a few quick thoughts:
- James Casey: As a Rice alumn it was BAD ASS to see him making so many plays. Seeing him do all of that and more in college, and with the words coming out of Kubiak's mouth about wanting to get JC86 more involved in the offense, I knew it was only a matter of time before we saw plays like last week. I'm not saying I expected 126 yards and a touchdown, I'm just saying the crazy, laying out to beat the defender, fully horizontal touchdown catch is something I've seen before. Here's to hoping that they try and get him that involved in many more games to come.
- 4th quarter defense: Yes I will admit that some of the goodwill the defense built up during the first couple of weeks was lost after the 4th quarter defense allowed New Orleans to put up the 23 points that ultimately gave them the lead that was the difference in the game. Now New Orleans was playing at home, with one of the best offenses in the league (they almost pulled a similar comeback in Green Bay), but it would have been really nice to see the Texans put on their big boy pants and come up with a big play that would have shifted the game in their favor, but its not like they let a team with a putrid, inconsistent offense drive down the field in under a minute (New York Jets last year...). Going forward, I think they need to continue to gain confidence with their new system, maintain the aggressiveness shown in the first couple of weeks, and by season's end, I wouldn't be surprised to see this defense be able to step up and make plays when it counts.
- Red zone offense: It stunk last week. This week Arian Foster is back (woo hoo!). Look for that to make a huge difference. That is all.
Alright, that's enough about New Orleans. The Texans know what they need to work on and I'm sure (hopefully) that they worked towards fixing those issues this week. Looking forward to Pittsburgh, I expect this to be a tough, physical game. I know that's somewhat of a cliche when Pittsburgh is involved, but it's a cliche for a reason: because it's true. And in a bit of a twist, I expect the Texans to be able to match that physicality MUCH better than they have in years past. Watching the defense last week, there were many plays where Texan's players were making big hits on the the Saint's receivers and running backs. Since this is something I'm not used to as a Texan's fan, it was pretty nice to see that on a much more consistent basis than in the past. If they start flying around and making big hits against Pitt (and really against anyone going forward), then that extra little fear could possibly start creeping into the minds of the receivers before the ball gets there. I think this is going to be a game where unit match ups, rather than one-on-one match ups, will play a big roll in determining the winner. A couple of key unit match ups to watch are:
- Texan's run game v. Steeler's run defense: this will be a huge measuring stick of how the run game will be with Arian Foster back in charge. While down so far this year statistically, Pittsburgh is typically an elite team in stopping the run, especially in limiting zone running schemes. The Texan's offense goes as the run game goes, so they will need to continue to try and establish the run, even if not successful in the early goings. The extra time Matt Schaub gets if those pass rushing outside linebackers for Pittsburgh have to hesitate because they're thinking about the run could be the difference in a deep completion and a sack.
- Texan's front 7 v. Pittsburgh's O-line: I know that piling on the Steeler's offensive line is what the cool kids are doing, but offensive line effectiveness is equal parts talent and cohesiveness. I don't have the football pedigree to dissect their talent, but injuries and ineffectiveness have destroyed their chance to play together as a unit and this has made the offensive line a weakness for Pittsburgh. Granted Big Ben is one of the best scramblers in the game, but if the Texan's can show the consistent pressure they did weeks 1 and 2, I think the defense can severely limit the Pittsburgh offensive output.
- Steeler's D v. time: Again, this is another thing the cool kids point out, but the main components of Pittsburgh's D are getting up there in age. Not saying they can't be effective, but injury nicks and dings take a little longer to heal and those lingering nags can slow them down just enough for the Texan's offense to frolic in their typical way.
I'm running a little late and want to get my football thoughts posted before the game today. I'll still have the history behind Pittsburgh and the food this week, but that will have to wait for a later post. However, this week I am making pierogis. For those that don't know what they are, they are most similar to a Chinese dumpling, but from Poland. I'm making them from scratch so we'll see how this goes.
I'm going to try something this week and if it's successful, I may continue to do it going forward. I'm going to make a scoring prediction for this game. I'm hoping that I'm close and don't look a silly fool, but I'll leave you with this:
Pittsburgh 17
Houston 24
Happy Football Viewing
-MB
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